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Calculer les probabilités au poker : Mode d’emploi

Salut à tous ! Je profite d’un petit moment de libre pour vous parler d’un super livre que j’ai lu récemment : la biographie d’Annie Duke, qui raconte son parcours ainsi que ses techniques pour gagner. Ce bouquin très distrayant m’a fait accrocher sur un point : la manière dont sont calculées les probabilités. Déjà, les probabilités, c’est quoi ? C’est le calcul de ses chances de réussite par rapport aux cartes en main et sur le deck. On a donc trois sortes de probabilités : les pré-flops, les tirages et les probabilités au flop. En bref, il s’agit de connaître en pourcentage la force de votre main. 

Pour les matheux, c’est simple : prenez en compte la probabilité d’une figure lors du pré-flop. Une paire d’as, donc, vaut plus qu’un deux de trèfle et une dame. Il existe des dizaines de variantes des probabilités pré-flop.

À chaque changement dans le jeu, vous devez ré-ajuster vos estimations. Réfléchissez : si votre main pré-flop avait de grandes chances de gagner, elle peut perdre sa valeur au fil du tirage. Ne comptez pas sur une seule carte dans le jeu pour ce fameux flush. Cela a très, très peu de chances d’arriver. Il faut donc s’habituer à compter les cartes (couleurs, valeur, etc) afin de savoir, au fil du tirage, vos chances de réussite. Par exemple : vous avez deux cœurs dont l’as. Deux cœurs ont été tirés au flop. Vous avez de fortes chances qu’un troisième cœur sorte au turn ou à la river. Proba élevée = vous pouvez parier. 

Pour les moins matheux – et/ou ceux qui s’aventurent en ligne – vous avez de nombreux simulateurs en ligne, que vous pouvez télécharger gratuitement. Pour ma part, cependant, je préfère payer un peu histoire d’avoir du matériel de qualité… Et de soutenir les développeurs indépendants, ce que je ne rechigne jamais à faire. Enfin, c’est aussi parce que les différents logiciels offrent des dizaines de fonctionnalités. Les trois à retenir sont : le calcul de la cote, la sauvegarde de vos parties afin de jauger vos points forts et vos faiblesses, et la mesure de vos adversaires (ce que j’ai particulièrement aimé du côté de Poker Pro Labs). 

Attention cependant ! Il y a un débat passionné autour du sujet, révolution numérique oblige. Et même si ça aiderait bien les joueurs un peu rouillés comme moi, il est essentiel de faire un tour du côté des règlements afin de connaître les logiciels autorisés ainsi que ceux qui sont bannis. Je vous conseille cet outils de calcul de probabilité, vraiment bien fait!  

Dans tous les cas, la biographie de la première gagnante du WSOP Vegas m’a bien fait cogiter. Il est essentiel d’avoir au moins la notion de statistiques et de pourcentage de réussite de votre main… Ainsi que celle des autres. Les poètes préfèrent appeler cela le hasard ou la chance : nous, on s’en tiendra aux chiffres.

Il faut toujours garder en tête que vos probabilités ne sont pas les seules en jeu. En plus des vôtres, ce sont aussi celles qui occupent ceux que vous affrontez. Il s’agit donc aussi de calculer les autres figures possibles, et de prendre en compte la possibilité – toujours désagréable – que celui qui vient de remiser pourrait très bien l’emporter. 

Dans tous les cas, prenez l’habitude de compter, ne serait-ce que pour la concentration, et inspirez-vous des astuces des grands joueurs pour vos parties que ce soit en poker en argent réel ou au poker gratuit!

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